Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
