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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.